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Tactical Advice Explainer
(Mayor of Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Combined Authority)
We've manually set advice for this mayoralty. While Labour won this contest in 2021 it was as a result of Lib Dem transfers under the Supplementary Vote system, which is no longer used. The “first preference” result in 2021 was Con 40%, Lab 33% and Lib Dem 27%. However, more recent elections (in 2022, 2023 or 2024 depending on the council) in the local councils covering the Mayoralty area have shown the Lib Dems clearly out-performing Labour in being second to the Tories across the area (Con 37%, LD 29%, Lab 18%, Green 8%, Other 8%). South Cambs is a good example. This has been reinforced by the Lib Dems strong showing at the General Election last year, gaining three of the eight seats and the national polling changes that have occurred since 2022-2024 which will have weakened Labour and strengthened the Lib Dems here. This view is supported by the bookies odds. A single opinion poll from early April shows the contest for challenger to be essentially neck and neck between Lib Dem and Labour. However, we find the clear local election results totals, sufficiently persuasive to justify the advice to vote Lib Dem tactically here.
Labour won the last election
Tories came 2nd
Liberal Democrat came 3rd
Mayoral elections previously used Supplementary Vote, so voters could choose a 1st and 2nd preference candidate. The Tories abolished the Supplementary Vote system, so you can only vote for one candidate. Therefore we only consider 1st preference votes when making recommendations, and the charts above only reflect 1st preference votes from previous elections.